2014 Portfolio Update – May 13, 2015

There is no better time to second-guess yourself than the present  — Metaphor Manglers, probably

I don’t usually pay much attention to short-term effects, because usually they are transitory and contribute little to the trend; even the five year CAGR numbers are meaningless against the backdrop of the 2008 debacle as the subsequent tide lifted all boats, even General Electric appeared to perform. In yesterday’s post I commented at length on my struggles to complete my annual ritual of rebalancing in the face of uncertainty, so today I Continue reading


Why bother with Rules?

It doesn’t matter if you’re reading this below or above the 49th, or on the other side of the pond; lately investing has been fraught with uncertainty, if not outright danger. Saudi influences on oil prices, US frackers’ ‘damn the torpedoes’ attitudes or, up here, Albertans’ ‘damn the torpedoes’ attitudes have wreaked havoc on energy stocks. EU obstinacy, or Greek obstinacy, take your pick, is messing up my bank stocks, and I have no idea why my telecoms have been slapped down. So, yeah, times are interesting. Continue reading

2014 Portfolio Update

The deed is done, the numbers are in. My portfolio is re-balanced and I’ve managed to follow my rules to a great extent. Reviewing previous posts on the subject, I have to admit to a bit of a chortle, especially here:

Since first implementing my DOGS strategy in 2002, I can honestly say that this has been the toughest time that I’ve had in the markets.

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2014, the Home Stretch

Having built these portfolios around November last year, I’m getting to that point where it’s time to dig deeper into my holdings and review possible candidates. My rules stipulate that I track holdings for sudden changes, but yearly reviews include candidate comparisons and dividend distributions.

Before I get to the reviews including a a look at performance, I have to share this gem from Motley Fools –

Imagine you pick 1 million random people from around the world every day,” said Toby McDade, chief investment officer of Momentum Fee Capital Management. “Some days, 51% would be in a good mood, 49% in a bad mood. The next day maybe it’s the opposite. Other days, random chance could mean 8% of people are really pissed off for no real reason. This is basically what the market is on a day-to-day basis,” he said.

Asked what his clients thought of this view, Mr. McDade laughed. “Oh my God, you think I could tell my clients that? How could I justify my salary?” Clients were told Monday’s gain was caused by a mix of reversing geopolitical instability, shifting uncertainty patterns, a risk-on atmosphere, and a perfect storm of beta meeting sigma. Noone knew what those words meant.


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Chevron reports Q1’14 results

In somewhat belated news, Chevron – one of my core holdings – reported Q1 numbers that were down from the previous periods and missed expectations. Investors, or rather analysts were looking for $2.47 on $54.B in revenue versus the reality of $2.36 from $53.3B. That translated to a drop of 6% in revenue while profits fell by 27%. Continue reading

My Personal 4-Bagger

You can’t imagine the trouble I’ve managed to get myself into with English idioms; being a fresh-off-the-boat, ESL type, so many -isms come along just trying to force my faceplant. My good friends educate and help me along, mere acquaintances  merely cringe. But before I go too far down the side road of my unintentional racisms, I will explain the ‘x’-bagger. Continue reading

2013 Portfolio Update – May 6, 2014

updated 6 May, 2014

updated 6 May, 2014

For the sake of complete transparency, and in order to make my point that it is entirely possible to beat, on average, the performance of most products issued by the mutual fund industry, I strive to provide portfolio updates, and will continue to do so. In good years and in bad. The last 5 years have been good, in fact excellent as I have shown here. Continue reading

“What to do??”

Years ago I had a Russian on my team; endowed with great technical skills, he would still periodically find himself with a dilemma, perhaps with a choice of differing approaches to resolution. He would come to me and lay out the problem, describe the various solutions, Continue reading